In order to obtain the requested boundary conditions for the individual case studies and to estimate also the feedback loops from adaptation measures to the climate change dynamics, there is a need to use various modelling tools at different scales. The approach chosen in the HighNoon project is to integrate the models in a nested approach.
Figure: HighNoon work packages at various scales – a nested approach
- will be published later on -
This figure shows the scaling interrelations of the different Work Packages and gives a representation of the nested approach in the HighNoon project. Regional downscaling of climate and socio-economic boundary conditions will take place in WP1 and WP3. The output of the downscaled regional climate models will be used as input for the further hydrological modeling in WP3. In this work package, glacier and snowmelt will be calculated on a basin- and subcatchment scale and the effects will be translated to the case studies. In WP4 and WP6 the results of Work packages 1, 2 and 3 will be used in the case studies at various levels; basin, subcatchment and field scale. In Work packages 4 and 6 both a downscaling and an upscaling will take place. Effects of changes in monsoon pattern and river runoff will be downscaled and translated to the level where the stakeholders process and assessment of adaptation measures takes place. In the upscaling the results of the different case studies will be integrated at the subcatchment and basin level.
Figure: General structure of work packages
This figure shows the principal logical interaction of the Workpackages. Basically the work of the project can be structured related to the domains (i) bio-physical and socio-economic boundary conditions. (ii) governance and adaptation measures (iii) and related tools.
While the boundary conditions may provide initial information on future changes in water availability in temporal and quantitative terms, both the indicators as well as new methods for a prioritization of measures will be used to assess the possible impacts.
An important component of the proposed project is the consideration of feedback loops from adaptation measures on the regional hydrology (humidity, evaporation) as well as on future socio-economic conditions. Considering the feedback loops, the project will be able to improve the understanding of possible interactions and limitations of adaptation measures.
The IMAGE model (Bouwman et al., 2006) has recently been applied in many large scale integrated assessments (IPCC, GEO-4, OECD Environmental Outlook). The model is used to make scenarios for future land use, in a fully integrated way taking into account climate change, socio-economic changes and corresponding demands for energy and food. At this moment, the IMAGE model is extended with a water resources model including an irrigation and reservoir operation module. With this extension, the models capabilities of assessing future food security and water stress issues will be improved.
Work Package 6 seeks to develop (multi-sector) adaptation measures through a participatory approach with identified stakeholders both at the institutional and the community level.
In each Case Study, a multi-stakeholder platform-approach will be followed, thus identifying (sets of) adaptation measures that are site specific and take into account the views and priorities of local people (both men and women). The role of governance, implementation of various plans and traditional modes of adaptation will also be studied. Based on the participatory analysis with stakeholders involved, boundary conditions for adaptation can be identified and tested, both in pilot projects (e.g. changing water management in agriculture for a second crop) as well as in modelling exercises. Integration of both traditional as well as other identified site-specific adaptation measures will be investigated, as well as the issue of up-scaling in similar conditions to benefit a greater share of the population.
Integrated assessments have been proposed in the following sectors and it is planned that measures will be outlined for the water, agriculture, energy, health and ecosystem sectors. Since a cyclic process of interactions is involved, outputs from WP 6 feeds back into the dynamism of WP 3, wherein the socio economic situations shall be varying over time and any developments for adaptation therein will have an influence on the local/regional/national conditions as well as the feed into the global context. Also close co-operation with WP4 is foreseen, in order to assist with formulation and testing of new and innovative methods for stakeholder participation in adaptation.
Figure: Work packages in the research cycle of the project (adapted from Leeuwis, 2007; Kolb, 1984)